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Lock of the Century Eleven seasons. Seventy-seven methods. One ladder.

Model Performance

Model performance · all time, 2015–2026

ATS 3287-3295-116 (49.9%, -618.1u)ROI -5.1% on 12,067u stakedSU 5365-2518 (68.1%)breakeven at −110 = 52.4%
201620172018201920202021202220232024202520260u-618.12015 Week 1: -7.0u2015 Week 2: -25.0u2015 Week 3: -5.0u2015 Week 4: +14.9u2015 Week 5: +11.1u2015 Week 6: +0.8u2015 Week 7: +16.9u2015 Week 8: +19.5u2015 Week 9: +10.6u2015 Week 10: +3.0u2015 Week 11: -6.3u2015 Week 12: +0.6u2015 Week 13: +12.9u2015 Week 14: +20.6u2015 Bowls: +20.6u2016 Week 0: +17.6u2016 Week 1: +18.4u2016 Week 2: -17.1u2016 Week 3: -19.3u2016 Week 4: -26.4u2016 Week 5: -50.8u2016 Week 6: -36.6u2016 Week 7: -35.0u2016 Week 8: -25.6u2016 Week 9: -52.9u2016 Week 10: -39.5u2016 Week 11: -54.3u2016 Week 12: -37.3u2016 Week 13: -77.4u2016 Week 14: -78.2u2016 Week 15: -81.2u2016 Week 16: -83.3u2016 Bowls: -79.1u2016 Bowls: -90.0u2016 Bowls: -86.4u2017 Week 0: -83.7u2017 Week 1: -94.9u2017 Week 2: -90.0u2017 Week 3: -112.7u2017 Week 4: -99.9u2017 Week 5: -118.5u2017 Week 6: -124.5u2017 Week 7: -128.9u2017 Week 8: -142.4u2017 Week 9: -146.3u2017 Week 10: -146.4u2017 Week 11: -157.6u2017 Week 12: -176.3u2017 Week 13: -184.6u2017 Week 14: -176.9u2017 Week 15: -177.9u2017 Week 16: -171.5u2017 Bowls: -178.7u2017 Bowls: -173.8u2017 Bowls: -176.8u2017 Bowls: -173.2u2018 Week 0: -170.4u2018 Week 1: -184.3u2018 Week 2: -184.8u2018 Week 3: -187.0u2018 Week 4: -182.1u2018 Week 5: -194.0u2018 Week 6: -222.0u2018 Week 7: -240.3u2018 Week 8: -241.3u2018 Week 9: -243.5u2018 Week 10: -263.8u2018 Week 11: -264.0u2018 Week 12: -265.7u2018 Week 13: -277.6u2018 Week 14: -272.6u2018 Week 15: -273.7u2018 Week 16: -274.8u2018 Bowls: -272.2u2018 Bowls: -279.6u2018 Bowls: -284.7u2018 Bowls: -284.7u2019 Week 0: -283.8u2019 Week 1: -284.0u2019 Week 2: -305.0u2019 Week 3: -355.0u2019 Week 4: -353.6u2019 Week 5: -345.4u2019 Week 6: -354.6u2019 Week 7: -374.6u2019 Week 8: -371.4u2019 Week 9: -391.7u2019 Week 10: -380.0u2019 Week 11: -368.8u2019 Week 12: -342.2u2019 Week 13: -322.3u2019 Week 14: -318.8u2020 Week 1: -311.6u2020 Week 2: -311.3u2020 Week 3: -306.8u2020 Week 4: -294.4u2020 Week 5: -296.0u2020 Week 6: -295.0u2020 Week 7: -297.1u2020 Week 8: -313.5u2020 Week 9: -326.4u2020 Week 10: -329.0u2020 Week 11: -313.1u2020 Week 12: -310.1u2020 Week 13: -312.4u2020 Week 14: -300.1u2020 Week 15: -297.4u2020 Bowls: -300.4u2020 Bowls: -300.0u2020 Bowls: -309.0u2020 Bowls: -310.0u2020 Bowls: -308.1u2021 Week 0: -315.2u2021 Week 1: -324.4u2021 Week 2: -335.6u2021 Week 3: -349.8u2021 Week 4: -343.0u2021 Week 5: -344.0u2021 Week 6: -349.4u2021 Week 7: -345.8u2021 Week 8: -342.3u2021 Week 9: -347.0u2021 Week 10: -360.0u2021 Week 11: -366.4u2021 Week 12: -362.1u2021 Week 13: -349.8u2021 Week 14: -349.5u2021 Week 15: -351.5u2021 Week 16: -353.1u2021 Bowls: -356.2u2021 Bowls: -357.2u2021 Bowls: -356.5u2021 Bowls: -357.5u2022 Week 0: -357.1u2022 Week 1: -410.1u2022 Week 2: -409.4u2022 Week 3: -434.1u2022 Week 4: -438.0u2022 Week 5: -434.4u2022 Week 6: -433.1u2022 Week 7: -440.8u2022 Week 8: -430.1u2022 Week 9: -422.8u2022 Week 10: -425.5u2022 Week 11: -448.4u2022 Week 12: -454.0u2022 Week 13: -464.7u2022 Week 14: -468.4u2022 Week 15: -467.5u2022 Week 16: -464.2u2022 Bowls: -456.1u2022 Bowls: -477.0u2022 Bowls: -479.0u2022 Bowls: -478.1u2023 Week 0: -473.8u2023 Week 1: -501.7u2023 Week 2: -514.1u2023 Week 3: -518.9u2023 Week 4: -512.8u2023 Week 5: -511.2u2023 Week 6: -521.0u2023 Week 7: -524.2u2023 Week 8: -497.5u2023 Week 9: -501.0u2023 Week 10: -488.1u2023 Week 11: -514.9u2023 Week 12: -484.2u2023 Week 13: -463.3u2023 Week 14: -465.0u2023 Week 15: -463.2u2023 Week 16: -456.9u2023 Bowls: -458.3u2023 Bowls: -480.1u2023 Bowls: -478.2u2023 Bowls: -479.2u2024 Week 4: -505.1u2024 Week 5: -495.3u2024 Week 6: -514.7u2024 Week 7: -516.5u2024 Week 8: -533.8u2024 Week 9: -537.1u2024 Week 10: -546.2u2024 Week 11: -558.8u2024 Week 12: -580.6u2024 Week 13: -579.9u2024 Week 14: -555.3u2024 Week 15: -553.1u2024 Week 16: -553.1u2024 Bowls: -548.7u2024 Bowls: -559.6u2024 Bowls: -569.0u2024 Bowls: -568.2u2024 Bowls: -572.2u2025 Week 0: -576.2u2025 Week 1: -558.6u2025 Week 2: -556.2u2025 Week 3: -550.4u2025 Week 4: -552.0u2025 Week 5: -562.9u2025 Week 6: -550.7u2025 Week 7: -548.3u2025 Week 8: -544.7u2025 Week 9: -549.4u2025 Week 10: -548.6u2025 Week 11: -560.7u2025 Week 12: -572.1u2025 Week 13: -568.9u2025 Week 14: -552.8u2025 Week 15: -555.1u2025 Week 16: -555.1u2025 Bowls: -557.4u2025 Bowls: -560.4u2025 Bowls: -568.0u2025 Bowls: -568.1u2025 Bowls: -569.1u2026 Week 0: -562.1u2026 Week 1: -589.3u2026 Week 2: -592.8u2026 Week 3: -591.6u2026 Week 4: -597.0u2026 Week 5: -604.8u2026 Week 6: -607.6u2026 Week 7: -618.1u-618.1u

Season by season

SeasonATSCover%UnitsROI%SUSU%
2015297-279-1351.6+20.6+1.9499-19472.0
2016291-310-1048.4-106.9-9.8479-23667.0
2017298-309-1749.1-86.8-7.8496-24666.8
2018287-321-947.2-111.5-10.2494-23667.7
2019254-267-748.8-34.1-3.5435-18969.7
2020224-193-653.7+10.6+1.4351-14770.5
2021299-299-1150.0-49.4-4.4482-24466.4
2022317-321-1049.7-120.6-10.6482-25365.6
2023328-285-1553.5-1.2-0.1529-21671.0
2024200-223-647.3-93.0-12.9373-18267.2
2025342-329-951.0+3.2+0.3519-24967.6
2026150-159-348.5-49.1-7.9226-12664.2

Conference (league games)

ConferenceGamesSUSU%ATSATS%
Big Ten732532-18674.1311-27253.3
American536391-14273.4206-18752.4
Independents3322-1068.812-1544.4
Sun Belt515350-16268.4204-16954.7
SEC674449-21667.5272-28548.8
Big 12589392-19067.4235-23849.7
Mountain West512337-16866.7185-19648.6
MAC534344-17965.8196-19849.7
CUSA529341-18165.3205-20350.2
ACC687436-23864.7283-27750.5
Pac-12474302-16664.5174-20146.4

P5 / G5 split

MatchupGamesSUSU%ATSATS%
G5 vs G534812203-109166.91314-125951.1
P5 vs G51136729-23675.5476-53047.3
P5 vs P537162433-119167.11497-150649.9