Where this comes from
The FBR was built in 2015 and has been bet in real time every week since. Nothing on this site is a backtest. Every line was produced before kickoff, every wager went in at the number shown, and every result landed in the log that week: wins, losses, and pushes alike. The seasons you can browse here are that living record, reconstructed from the original files and republished in full. The engine began as a Windows desktop app; its 77 methods now run in a rebuilt pipeline that faithfully reproduces the original tables.
The ranking
The FBR is a 77-method composite computer ranking. Every method scores each FBS team 0 to 100 on one lens: records, margins, points, schedule strength, results against ranked and winning opponents, hot streaks, upsets, home and away splits, and the human polls. The composite is the weighted average, recomputed from scratch after every week of games. This site tracks the full all-team table every week, not just a top 25.
The line
For any matchup, the 77 methods are put head to head and their split becomes the FBR line, expressed as a home margin. There is no home-field adjustment, no injuries, no weather; it is deliberately mechanical. A bet triggers when the FBR line disagrees with the Vegas closing spread by enough to matter, on the side the FBR favors. How much is enough, and where the tiers begin, stays in-house.
The ladder
Conviction tiers with escalating stakes. The thresholds are the house recipe:
| Tier | Stake |
|---|---|
| Base | 1u |
| Lock | 2u |
| Lock of the century | 3u |
| Century of the millennium | 4u |
| You hate free money | 5u |
Does the line mean anything?
Fair question for a machine with a sense of humor. Below, every lined game since 2015: the bigger the FBR makes a favorite, the more often and by more that side actually wins. The line is a real signal, not a random number generator with branding.
| FBR favorite by | Games | Favorite SU win% | Avg FBR line | Avg actual margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 – 3 | 997 | 58.0% | 1.6 | 4.5 |
| 3 – 7 | 1185 | 56.4% | 4.8 | 3.0 |
| 7 – 14 | 2252 | 65.2% | 10.3 | 6.8 |
| 14 – 21 | 1801 | 74.6% | 16.7 | 11.9 |
| 21+ | 1296 | 83.3% | 26.3 | 17.1 |
Each dot is a cluster of games (bigger = more games), FBR line across, actual margin up. The dashed gold diagonal is where a perfect line would live; the cloud leans along it.
Grading
Everything is graded at flat -110: a win pays 10/11 of the stake, a loss costs the stake, and pushes are excluded from records and staking. Net units and ROI are figured on staked units, with tier stakes of 1 to 5. Weeks run Tuesday through Monday, Week 1 ends on Labor Day, and December 15 and later windows are labeled Bowls. Lines come from the FBR table computed after the previous week, so there is no hindsight in any number.
The honest numbers
Across 7,886 lined games (2015 to 2025): straight up the model picks winners at 68.2% (closing favorites: 73.9%). Against the spread it is 3137-3136 (50.0%), -569.1u on 11,449 staked units (-5.0% ROI). The Lock band has parked almost exactly on the 52.4% breakeven line for eleven seasons: 805-733-29 (52.3%). Those are the real numbers, published weekly, wins and losses alike. Nothing here is betting advice.
Glossary
SU straight up, the winner regardless of spread. ATS against the spread. Cover beating the spread on your side. Push landing exactly on the number; stake returned. Unit (u) one standard stake. Close the closing Vegas spread, shown as a home margin (+ = home favored). P5 / G5 power conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, Pac-12, plus Notre Dame) vs the rest.